According to projections made in a study by CIM research staff. The results have just been published in the journal ‘Nature Communications’
The impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation patterns and on the position and influence of moisture sources is one of the lines of study of the researchers of the CIM who work within the Environmental Physics Laboratory group (EPhysLab–Marine Research Center) of the University of Vigo. In a new article published in the journal Nature Communications, these researchers present projections of this impact, considering the worst climate scenario, on atmospheric moisture transport in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean for the middle and the end of this century. Among the conclusions, they point out that the increase in humidity will bring more precipitation to the south and west of the Mediterranean continental area.
The article, titled Projected changes in atmospheric moisture transport contributions associated with climate warming in the North Atlantic, is authored by CIM research staff Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, José C. Fernández, Albenis Pérez and Jorge Eiras, with the team completed by Stefan Rahimi, from the University of Wyoming, in the United States. It was carried out within the framework of the Setestrelo project, funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the Xunta de Galicia. “It is currently known that global warming (together with the associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns) is altering the position and intensity of the different moisture sources on a global scale. These source regions are characterized by contributing more water to the atmosphere than they receive, and they are crucial for maintaining the hydrological cycle,” note the authors of the study.
Projections in the most pessimistic scenario
The study published in Nature Communications focuses on two of the main sources of global moisture: the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, analyzing their evolution throughout the remaining decades of the 21st century to infer their influence on the neighboring continents at the end of it. The Iberian Peninsula, “a particularly relevant moisture sink due to its strategic position”, also plays a prominent role in this study led by Luis Gimeno and Raquel Nieto.
For the projections they chose what is known as the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario, a scenario of human behavior and social development entirely based on the use of fossil fuels. “This scenario, although extremely pessimistic, allows us to amplify and better detect potential changes than those in which greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. Therefore, the results presented in this study should be understood as amplified signals of the expected reality,” comments Luis Gimeno.
According to the research team, the simulations carried out in the study show, among other things, “how moisture from the North Atlantic will increase precipitation on the east coast of North America in winter and autumn, as well as the British Isles in the winter months”. In addition, precipitation associated with the North Atlantic Ocean will decrease in Western Europe and Africa. Regarding the Mediterranean Sea, the article indicates that its moisture “will play a relevant role in increasing precipitation in the southern and western regions of the Mediterranean continental area as well as in decreasing precipitation in Eastern Europe”.
Source: DUVI
