Answering the question of how much food the sea could produce sustainably in 2050 is the objective of the study published in the prestigious journal Nature by a group of 22 researchers from ten countries, including Elena Ojea, head of the Future Oceans Lab group at CIM-UVigo. Based on the analysis of multiple biological, ecological and economic factors, the experts indicate that in 2050, the production of food from the sea, encompassing fishing, aquaculture and shellfishing, could increase by between 36% and 74% the 59 million tons of food it currently generates.
Coordinated by Christopher Costello, from the University of California, Ling Cao, from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, and Stefan Gelcich, from the Ponficia Universidad Católica de Chile, the article The future of food from the sea is based on the Blue Paper commissioned to a multidisciplinary team of international experts by the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy, promoted by the United Nations. Presented in November 2019 at the World Food Organization (FAO) in Rome, the report was carried out by a team of researchers from the fields of economics, biology, ecology, nutrition, fishing and aquaculture, among which Ojea was the only Spanish representative.v
Based on this Blue Paper, explains the CIM researcher, “we refined the methods and analysis” to give rise to this publication in Nature, “which guarantees the global impact of the study”, necessary, she points out, to give greater visibility to “a debate on how to feed a growing world population with limited resources in the future”. In this sense, the study highlights the “important role” that the oceans can play when responding, in a sustainable way, to this increase in food demand through a “substantial increase” in production for which, they point out, “an improvement in fisheries management, changes in regulations and technological innovations are needed”.
Different growth scenarios
Taking into account multiple factors, “from the biological and ecological limitations linked to marine fish populations, their distribution and growth, such as the availability of areas and resources to expand sustainable aquaculture”, such as the balance between supply and demand, the study presents a series of “growth ranges that take into account different scenarios”, explains Ojea.
Taking into account these ecological, economic and technological limitations, a series of “sustainable supply curves” are presented that place the potential for an increase in production between 36% and 74% with respect to the 59 million tons currently generated by these three productive sectors. This growth potential, explains Ojea, “depends on three factors”; a “reform in the management of fisheries and aquaculture towards more sustainable forms in the long term”, that global demand adjusts to this production and that, “the most complicated, that current limitations such as feed ratios in aquaculture improve thanks to technological advances”. In this sense, Ojea clarifies that although a growth of 36% would already be possible with current technologies “improving management”, the largest of the expected increases “depends largely on technological improvements that are yet to be made”.
Growth in the three sectors
According to the article, food generated at sea, 80% of which comes from fishing, currently represents 17% of the world’s edible meat production, a percentage that could reach 25% in 2050 through a substantial increase in production. The study concludes that production could increase in both fishing and shellfishing and marine aquaculture, with the latter experiencing greater growth, for which, the article adds, “management practices and policies that allow for environmentally sustainable expansion” will be necessary.
Feeding the world sustainably
Responding to the increasing need for edible meat through “land expansion,” the study notes, could exacerbate the problems arising from climate change, while also causing biodiversity loss. In this situation, foods from the sea could contribute “exceptionally to global food and nutritional security,” since they are also a source of protein and essential fatty acids “that are not easily found in other foods.”
“We show how this goal of food for all can be achieved through sustainable management of the sea, including fishing and marine aquaculture,” emphasizes Ojea, who focuses on Galicia as “one of the places that may have the greatest potential to improve its fishing and aquaculture production in a sustainable way.” In this way, he concludes, “we put the marine sector at the center of the answer to the big question of how to feed the planet in the future.”
The research activity of the Future Oceans Lab has the support of the Xunta de Galicia and the European Union, through the co-financing of the CIM under the FEDER/FSE Galicia 2014-2020 Operational Program.
Source: DUVI
